The World We Live In
First thing: nobody knows anything, for certain, but that doesn’t mean there cannot be a high degree of confidence.
Second thing: there are no Guarantees. This applies to the future.
Humans are always trying to make predictions about the future. This ability to predict the future, “sometimes,” has allowed us to evolve to this point:
The best method is to look at past events and look for patterns that repeat. The best example of this at work is the study of the stars - known as astronomy - which allows us to better predict the seasons. It works! We started to study the stars in an attempt, to find other patterns, to use it create “the giant clock in the sky” (literally each sign in astrology can be used as a time, and the planets as hands on the clock ). Astrology took this clock from astronomy. ( Astrology is the belief that the position of the planet affects the way event occurs on earth)
The ability to predict seasons was a huge boost to civilization because of framing.
Is it any wonder that we would look for other formations in the stars for meaning on earth? Horoscopes (which personalize meaning based on position of stars on when and where you were born), an offshoot of astrology, is a prime example of this. People have a confirmation bias (a want to believe).There is the questionable cause-effect logic fallacy (in which two events occurring together are taken as causes and effect. This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase “cum hoc ergo proctor hoc” (with this, therefore because of this.)) Some people started to believe, and said it worked. Since belief is contagious, others started to believe. There are still many people who believe in horoscopes. Just think - if this worked as good as the seasons for farming , imagine how the world would be different.
No method to predict the future is fool proof - a late or early frost will destroy crops, and other seasonal weather anomalies will also destroy crops, so even something that is used to great benefit can fail from time to time. There are no Guarantees in life.
With that said, there are cyclical patterns that repeat, one being “the circle of life,” and yes, there is a huge benefit to those who can predict the future.
- How often do you use past events to predict the future ?
- Have you ever used the Phrase, “ it’s always been that way “?
- Have you ever placed a bet on a sporting event, or anything?
- Do you go over your conversation with others, in your mind, before they happen?
- Do you have expectations about tomorrow?
If you answer yes to any of the last 4 questions, you must also answer yes to question 1
There are 3 ways to look at history as it relates to the past.
First is Chaotic, which means total randomness This would not offer any ability to predict the future.
The second is Linear, things follow a straight line. If things are going well, they continue going well; if things are going badly, then that will continue., There is some predictive value to this way of thinking of history.
The third way is Cyclical. The best example of this is the 4 seasons, so much so, that I will predict that when someone is comparing something to the 4 seasons, as an allegory, they’re using the cyclical method of predicting the future. This has predictive value, when it comes to history.(wow I just made a prediction, what method did I use ? )
Ok, there looks like there is a 4th way to predict the future. This method doesn’t use past events (history.) Instead, it is making a forecast based upon a known phenomenon (the 4-seasons is the known phenomenon in the prediction I made). There are many known phenomena. The scientific method has given us the means to know the detail of how these known phenomena work, and discovering more in the process, thus making it the best way to predict the future. The term that is used is forecast because they are usually time sensitive which mean they are limited; however, they are more accurate. (Best known example is Weather forecast.) There are also known phenomenon that we do not know exactly how they work.
Because there a lot that we do not know about the world in which we live, I would hazard a guess and say all three ways are needed to look at history. There are random events that happen, things do appear to happen in linear orders, and yes, they do appear to go in cyclical patterns as well. History does appear to have a repetitive pattern. More accurately the events are different, but reactions are repetitive.
Why, all this talk about prediction and forecasting?
It has to do with the human experience. I will speak for myself, but if this resonates with you, feel free to use.
My Understanding Of The Cycle Of Life!
Winter, there is so much uncertainty and sometimes the 3C’s (Chaos, Conflict, and Crisis) seems to rule this realm. It’s only normal to want to protect yourself from the big 3C’s. There are 3 levels to the 3C’s:
First it is on an individual basis, Second group/family, and Third, the society as a whole. When you go through these events you will not be the same afterwards as you where before. You will see things differently; the outcome is not Guaranteed. There is a darkness in the 3C’s void, parts of you will die, things will be destroyed. You will need to protect, the precious parts of yourself, let go of what is not serving you, and you need to fight to save the best parts of yourself. Then make a plan to build anew this is the winter for soul/group/society. This is the time of darkness that we must go through. It may seem bad but it’s not, and it is necessary, for the results lead to spring and a rebirth of soul. Our groups, and society are renewed. We are set for strong recovery if all goes well. (A realization; the dark night of the soul, could also be called the winter of the soul).
If the 3C’s is winter, spring is the 3R’s - rebirth, renew, and rebuild. A farmer will make the field ready for planting to make sure when planting they have the best chance to thrive, society rebuilds better. Very busy time for farmer.
Then summer comes, this is time when the farmer has free time, because the outward is running smoothly. Giving them time to imagine thing differently, think about the improvements that can be made for the future seasons. It gives individuals time to think about things. This is the 3I’s time, which is imagination, improvement, and individualization. Where winter is outward looking and working on the building of the group, summer is the time when the inward is taken care of, and worked on, and building the individual.
So, what about fall? There a change in color, and unraveling of summer, the harvest. This is a busy time for farmer. Not a time for new ideas unless they work. This is a pragmatic (what’s known to work, no BS) time, the farmer finds out if a profit is made, decisions are made, the pungent (bad ideas, weeds) are tossed away. The 3P’s - pragmatic, profit and pungent.
The Fourth Turning
Ok, now I must confuse you a bit, I read (listened) to a book that got me thinking. The book is the “ the 4th Turning” by William Strauss and Neil Howe. Note they also wrote a few other books about generational impact on western history. This book hooked me on history and people in history. It is a great way to teach history because it brings meaning to it. This book even got me reading old children’s fable
interview with the authors of the Fourth Turning (Youtube)
Here Super quick summery
History follows a seasonal pattern known as a saeculum (Latin, for the length of time roughly one lifetime, and the time needed to complete the renewal of human population) There are four generations in each saeculum. All four seasons are represented. It usually lasts 80 to 100 years, each season equals a generation (20 to 25 years). When the season changes, the mood of the country changes - a turning point. Those born in a seasonal development are affected by the mood of the country.
Individuals go through 4 seasons as well - childhood, young adults, middle age, and old age. When you move up the ladder of age, your mood changes too. When you were born in the saeculum effects your entire live and gives your generation an Archetypal type.
Spring(high) would be the (prophet ).
Summer(awaking) would be the (nomad )
Fall (unraveling) would be the (hero)
Winter( Crisis) would be the (artist.)
How this relates to the current generation
The GI/greatest Generation or hero (1903-1926)
The silent generation are the artist (1927-1942)
The two generations above are a part of the previous saeculum
The baby boomers are the prophets (1943-1960)
The generation x are the nomads (1961-1981)
The Millennials are the heroes (1982-200?)
And a new , as of now nameless, artist generation is arriving.
My opinion, not in the book, is that individuals born towards the beginning or end of a generation, are transitional. They can relate to both generations - simply a line needed to be drawn. There most likely is a transition between all generations but two well-known ones would be
Jones transition (1956-1964)
Xillennials transition (1977-1984)
This is how this book got me looking at history. So, as an x generation person , therefore a nomad type. I started looking at another generation that were nomad. Here are two I looked up: the lost generation, and the gilded generation, I started looking up a reading about people of those generations, and the similarities between now and then.
I started rereading children’s fables that characterize the prophet, nomad, heroes, and artist (note the generations are always in that order, only time it not, as when a generation gets skipped because of an anomaly). If you reread them, you see how your generational type was perceived in the past . For me, I looked at Hans Solo and Chewbacca from Star Wars, and Aladdin from Aladdin who are characteristic of nomads.
If you have any interest in Generations and reason for the generation gap, I recommend the book the 4th turning as the concept in book expands the cycle of life (4 season) to society at large.
Consequently, some in astrology have made attempts to compare generations in “the 4th turning” to Pluto’s trip around the sun. This makes no sense to me, it would make more sense for those into astrology to compare it to Uranus so here some “cum hoc ergo proctor hoc” with this.
Each saeculum is roughly 84 years, Uranus circle the sun in 84 years.
Uranus was in Gemini
In war world 2 (1942-45) civil war(1861-1865), Revolutionary war(1775-1783), and the 9-year war(1688-1697)
Uranus was in Gemini
Note Uranus will be entering Gemini April 26, 2026, exits may, 22, 2033
Does this mean there was going to be a major war?
My Opinion - astronomy, not astrology, has created a huge clock as a way of telling time by locating an astronomical event and knowing when it will occur again. And yes, there are cyclical phenomenon on earth whose length is nearly the same as this astronomical cycle. One does not cause the other, no more than the clock strikes 3 pm means a yellow bus drives by and drop children off. Three pm did not cause that. It easy to think that because there are two astronomical events that cause an earthly phenomenon.
1 The earth traveling around the sun causes seasonal changes and
2. The moon orbit causes tidal effects.
So, does Uranus in Gemini mean there is going to be a war? No, this astronomical event is not the cause however it does tell us that the time is (3 pm) for this phenomenon on earth has arrived. In which the book “the 4th turning” goes over this with more details.